Since the initiation of the full-blown Ukraine invasion, it's estimated that countless Russians, potentially reaching into the hundreds of thousands, have fled their homeland. This article explores their identities, their destinations, and their motivations for departure.
Youth Against War: Generational Conflict in Russia Initial signs of the mass exodus appeared around March and April of the previous year. First-time emigrants voiced their opposition to the conflict and expressed disappointment at the lack of widespread protest in Russia. As feelings of isolation and risk intensified, they saw departure as the safer option.
In September 2022, Putin initiated a so-called "partial" military draft, placing the majority of Russian men in danger of conscription. With rampant complaints of subpar training and inadequate equipment for the fresh draftees, families began their exodus, resulting in queues at the Georgian and Kazakhstani borders that lasted for days.
Despite the noticeable departures, Putin's spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, denied mass migrations aimed at dodging the draft. An "online call-up" for conscription was launched in April, permitting enlistment via a digital register instead of physical paperwork. Peskov refuted claims that this was an attempt to halt the exodus.
Who's Leaving and Where are They Heading? Accurate data regarding the exact numbers of emigrants from Russia is scarce. Nonetheless, projections range from several hundreds of thousands to a few million. The UK's Ministry of Defence suggested that 1.3 million people departed Russia in 2022.
Additional data, including figures cited by Forbes and Russian-language media outlets like The Bell and RTVi, align with this upward trend. In 2022 alone, between 600,000 and 1 million people are believed to have exited Russia.
Post-war, countries like the EU and the US have complicated visa applications for Russians, unless they have work-related reasons or existing family connections. Conversely, countries like Georgia and Armenia have maintained open borders for Russian citizens. In contrast, places like Kazakhstan have revised laws to limit the duration of Russian tourists' stay, seemingly as a countermeasure to the influx of immigrants.
What are the Implications for Russia? The Russian administration has attempted to downplay the impact of a massive departure of educated and affluent individuals and their accompanying wealth, but the economic consequences are becoming increasingly apparent.
Alfa Bank, Russia's biggest private financial institution, projects that around 1.5% of the entire Russian workforce might have fled. This group is primarily composed of highly skilled professionals, leading to severe staff shortages and recruitment challenges for companies.
Russia's Central Bank disclosed that, in the initial stages of the war, Russian citizens withdrew a record 1.2 trillion roubles (approximately £12bn / $15bn) from their bank accounts, a level of financial withdrawal that Russia hasn't witnessed since the financial crisis of 2008.
Sergei Smirnov, an economist at the Russian National Academy of Sciences, speculates that the trend of high-skilled individuals seeking exit opportunities will likely persist.